2025 Energy Institutional Investor Conference
ATB Capital Markets hosted its 13th Annual Institutional Investor Conference in Toronto.
ATB Capital Markets hosted its 13th Annual Institutional Investor Conference on January 8, 2025, in Toronto The day focused on the energy sector, and included discussions with nearly 30 energy companies in the energy infrastructure, energy services and energy production areas. Our keynote lunch speaker was Paul Epstein, a former NFL and NBA executive and author of the bestseller, Better Decisions Faster, who spoke about leadership and team building. In this report, we highlight key takeaways from the various panel sessions and fireside chats.
Exploration & Production
Key topics discussed on the E&P panels included current and long-term views on WCSB egress and the impact on near and medium term Canadian crude oil differentials, production growth project progressions, multilateral and secondary recovery trends, the potential impacts of US tariffs, industry M&A outlooks, ROC expectations, and modifications/learnings being factored into 2025 drilling/completion programs. In-basin natural gas dynamics are expected to materially improve in H2/25 following LNG Canada, with longer-term data center power generation tailwinds for natural gas demand introducing incremental industry confidence in potential future gas market demand.
The current political climate represents a mixed bag for producers, with very clear optimism towards a potential change in the Canadian federal government and regulatory environment, and political uncertainty and risks stemming from the US's potential sweeping tariffs. M&A consolidation is expected to continue to be a theme through 2025 as companies continue to seek M&A-fueled growth and portfolio inventory optimization.
Energy Infrastructure
The Energy Infrastructure panel featured AltaGas Ltd. (ALA), Capital Power Corporation (CPX), Northland Power Inc. (NPI) and TransAlta Corporation (TA). Discussions focused on rising demand for power and firm natural gas generation to support broader electrification and data center development.
CPX and TA have robust power generation asset positioning in Canada and the US, and are seeing significant opportunity for data center development co-located with power generation assets in Alberta. NPI is focused on its widespread renewable portfolio and offshore wind developments, but has flagged greenfield development opportunities to expand its natural gas generation portfolio in Canada. ALA is exposed on the Utility gas delivery side and further boasts a midstream asset portfolio that deals in processing natural gas, fractionation, and LPG exports.
Energy Services
The bullish electric power and natural gas view outlined by Energy Infrastructure and natural gas leveraged E&Ps is a long-term positive for energy services, but it has not manifested in actual activity increase yet. The Energy Services panel participated by CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU), Ensign Energy Services Inc. (ESI), Precision Drilling Corporation (PD) and Trican Well Service (TCW) highlighted modestly growing activity increases in Canada and a flattish US and International outlook for 2025.
However, TCW expects 4-6 frac crew and PD 15 to 20 rig increase in Canadian demand in the coming years from natural gas-related activity. PD is focused on raising cash return to shareholders, ESI is targeting $200mm in debt reduction in 2025, while TCW is actively considering organic and inorganic growth opportunities. CEU is positively exposed to rising drilling productivity and expecting market share gains in 2025, it is likely to increasingly prioritize high return growth opportunities.
2025 Outlooks
ATB Capital Markets’ research analysts have published their expectations in sector-specific thematic Outlooks. Click to read an executive summary or request the full report: