Spring 2026 Energy Sector Survey Results
Canadian Energy Sentiment Grows amid Slow Hormuz Flows
We present the results from the spring 2026 edition of ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ semi-annual Energy Sector Survey. The survey garnered responses from executives representing 24 energy services companies, 22 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 17 institutional investors. Responses were collected from March 18, 2026, to April 1, 2026.
Highlights:
- Canadian Energy Sentiment Inflects with Improved Global Supply/Demand Dynamic: With sharply higher crude prices in 2026 driven by Middle Eastern supply constraints, the spring 2026 survey shows an inflection in Canadian energy sector sentiment, with E&P and energy services executives reporting sharply improved outlooks over the past three months, and institutional investors becoming increasingly bullish on Canadian energy equities. The survey also uncovered a material reduction in the perceived risk to the Canadian energy sector related to potential global oversupply and OPEC+ additions.
- Industry Prioritizing Growth in 2026: Canadian energy companies are focused on growth in 2026, with 95% of E&P respondents expecting to grow production over the next year, 75% of energy services executives expecting activity levels to increase in 2026 vs 2025, and both public E&Ps and energy services companies ranking growth as their top capital allocation priority. For context, on a weighted average basis, the spring 2026 survey suggests that both oil and gas weighted Canadian E&Ps are expecting to grow production roughly 6% over the next year, while Canadian field activity levels are expected to increase roughly 4% y/y based on energy services expectations and E&P exploration and development spending trends. While well costs are expected to be roughly flat y/y, energy services pricing is widely expected to increase over the next six months, and on average, energy services companies are expecting margins to expand for the first time in three years, over the next six months.
- Strong Crude Prices Provide Capital Optionality: With crude prices materially outpacing E&P budget assumptions for 2026, the survey highlighted how E&P companies may allocate stronger than forecasted cash flows. The survey suggests that E&Ps are likely to differentially divert additional funds flow to deleveraging and to increased drilling and completions activity, followed closely by increased shareholder returns.
- Crude Egress Rises in Industry Risk Rankings; KXL Revival Gains Momentum: Crude egress constraints ranked as the second most prominent medium-term risk facing the Canadian energy sector, up from third in the fall 2025 survey, while 67% of survey takers expect Canada to face crude egress constraints before 2029, up from 51% in the fall 2025 survey. Despite broad skepticism regarding any potential new crude pipeline development, the survey showed a material increase in the perceived probability of the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline project, which is now viewed as more likely than Northern Gateway.
- Canadian LNG Expansion Remains Key Opportunity but FID Timing Expectations are Slipping: West coast LNG expansion ranked as the top industry opportunity, and the majority of survey takers believe both the 1.6bcf/d LNG Canada Phase 2 project and the 1.6bcf/d Ksi Lisims project will be granted positive FIDs, though FID timing consensus has weakened and expectations are extending further into the future.