Spring 2025 Energy Sector Survey Results
Driving with Steady Hands into a Storm of Uncertainty
We present the results from the spring 2025 edition of ATB Capital Markets’ semi-annual Energy Sector Survey. Our survey garnered responses from executives representing 26 energy services companies, 34 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 40 institutional investors. Our survey collection period spanned from March 13, 2025 to March 27, 2025.
Highlights:
The Industry was Holding Strong through Moderate Headwinds, but Conditions Just Got Worse
While market conditions have acutely worsened since April 2, 2025 (subsequent to the spring 2025 survey) on the combined news of 1) widely unexpected OPEC production additions, and 2) the announcement of wide-ranging tariffs levied by the US government on global trading partners (Canadian energy exempt, for now), the spring 2025 survey highlights what was a relatively unwavering outlook for Canadian energy companies in the face of already increasingly uncertain market conditions.
Despite weakened outlooks over the past three months, the survey shows that assuming US$65-US$75/bbl WTI, Canadian energy producers were positioning for mid-single digit E&D capital spending and production growth over the coming year, and that this trajectory was expected to be relatively resilient even with the threat of moderate cash flow impacts from tariffs.
Federal Policies Highlighted a Key Swing-Factor for Longer-Term Outlook
For a sixth consecutive survey, “Federal energy and environmental policies” ranked as the top risk facing the Canadian energy sector, with 54% of all survey takers ranking it as the top risk.
In addition, “Change in federal energy and environmental policies” was ranked as the second most prominent opportunity for the energy sector, up from third in the fall 2024 survey, with 47% of respondents ranking it as the top opportunity in the spring 2025 survey.
LNG Export Projects and Oil Pipeline Revivals
The survey revealed a general skepticism regarding the likelihood of any major oil pipeline project revival, though among projects, Northern Gateway was viewed as significantly more probable than Keystone XL or Energy East. In terms of gas exports, the survey showed a strong consensus that both the 1.8bcf/d LNG Canada phase two project and the 1.6bcf/d Ksi Lisims LNG projects would receive positive final investment decisions.
Investor Sentiment Dependent on Broad Market Conditions
Buyside sentiment improved from fall 2024 survey lows, with increased bullishness toward energy investing and a perception that energy equities are generally undervalued. On average, investors expected energy stocks to outperform the broader market, particularly in a growing economy, though on balance, buyside respondents expected energy equities to underperform the broad market in a recessionary environment.
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