Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey Results

We present the results from the fall 2026 edition of ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ semi-annual Energy Sector Survey. The survey garnered responses from executives representing 22 energy services companies, 27 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 42 institutional investors. Responses were collected from September 14, 2026, to September 28, 2026.

Highlights
Momentum Building in Canadian Energy Outlooks: 
Sentiment indicators across E&P, energy services, and institutional investors remained robust in the fall 2026 survey. The vast majority of both E&P (84%) and energy services (81%) executives reported improved outlooks over the past three months, while 88% of E&P respondents characterized their outlook as improving over the next six months, and 81% of energy services respondents expect activity levels to increase over the next six months.

The vast majority (78%) of institutional investors believe Canadian energy equities are undervalued, while 63% expect energy equities to outperform over the next year, and 76% report becoming more bullish on energy over the past six months. 

Measured Growth on Deck for 2027: 
Even with E&P capital budgets generally assuming crude prices to decline into the US$65 - US$75/bbl range, the survey indicates that the sector is preparing to grow in 2027; 90% of energy services executives expect activity levels to increase y/y in 2027, 56% of E&Ps expect higher exploration and development (E&D) spending in 2027, and 96% expect to grow production over the next year.

The survey suggests Canadian activity and E&D spending could be up roughly 5%-10% in 2027, with oil producers expecting to grow production by ~10% and gas producers expecting to grow production by ~5%. Alongside this growth, energy services pricing and margins are expected to increase, with more energy services companies reporting “excess demand” than “excess capacity” for the first time since the spring 2022 survey. 

Cautiously Optimistic on Federal Growth Initiatives: 
While federal energy policies remain the top-ranked risk for the industry, the survey showed that the industry is less concerned and is broadly encouraged by the federal government’s approach to expanding the Canadian energy industry.

Moreover, a strong majority of survey takers expect positive final investment decisions for key energy infrastructure projects including Pacific Link/Pathways, Prairie Connector, and Ksi Lisims, which cumulatively would add at least 1.6mm bbl/d of crude egress capacity and 1.6bcf/d of LNG export capacity (plus 1.8bcf/d from LNG Canada 2).

Conversely, the industry is skeptical that the Northern Shield Energy Corridor will be built, and, on balance, believes that major decarbonization investments, like Pathways, are harmful to the long-term competitiveness of the industry. 

Middle East Expected to Have Lasting Implications: 
The majority (53%) survey takers (excluding uncertain/no opinion) believe Middle Eastern crude exports will remain below prewar levels through 2027. Additionally, 72% now believe long-term global crude supply/demand balances will be tighter relative to their pre-war expectations.

Finally, the survey suggests the war is boosting funds flow to the Canadian public energy sector, with 79% of institutional investors noting that constraints on Middle East crude and LNG exports have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy companies. 

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