Fall 2025 Energy Sector Survey Results
Lukewarm Oilpatch Focused on Gas-Fired Growth
We present the results from the fall 2025 edition of ATB Capital Markets’ semi-annual Energy Sector Survey. Our survey garnered responses from executives representing 26 energy services companies, 33 exploration and production (E&P) companies, and 32 institutional investors. Our survey collection period spanned from August 28, 2025, to September 11, 2025.
Highlights:
Divergent Outlooks Unfolding in Lukewarm Energy Environment: The fall 2025 survey uncovered relatively tepid industry sentiment as medium-to-long-term commodity price outlooks moderated despite optimism regarding the trajectory of commodity prices over the next year. At the industry level, E&P outlooks modestly improved over the past three months, turning from modestly weakening to modestly improving. Meanwhile, despite optimism that activity will improve over the next year, energy services outlooks continue to weaken amid increasing uncertainty and mounting margin pressures. Buyside sentiment regarding energy investment remained positive on balance, though expectations of energy equity outperformance vs the broad market moderated from the spring 2025 survey.
Moderate Growth on Deck for 2026: The fall 2025 survey included an early look at 2026 expectations, including 1) a consensus view to mid-single-digit production growth; 2) low-single-digit energy services activity growth and E&P exploration and development spending; and 3) flat to modestly lower per well development costs versus 2025 with mild energy services pricing increases expected over the next six months.
Structural Gas Growth Remains a Key Focal Point: The fall 2025 survey uncovered a heavy growth focus for gas-weighted E&Ps amid a solidifying view of LNG export capacity expansion and a bullish view of Canadian gas pricing over the coming years. More specifically, survey takers are largely aligned in their view that LNG Canada phase one will ramp to full capacity by H1/26, and that there will be positive final investment decisions for at least 3.2bcf/d of incremental export capacity through LNG Canada phase two and Ksi Lisims LNG. This backdrop underpins outsized growth expectations for gas-weighted E&Ps which, on balance, rank growth as their top capital allocation priority. For context, the survey suggests gas-weighted E&Ps are expecting to grow production 6%-7% over the next 12 months, versus 4%-5% for oil weighted E&Ps.
Open-Minded but Skeptical on New Federal Government: While the industry and investors broadly believe the energy and environmental policies of the newly elected federal Liberal government will be more favourable to the Canadian oil and gas industry than the previous administration, the fall 2025 survey showed a general skepticism that the new federal government would actively work to grow the sector.