ATB Cannabis Investor Sentiment Survey - Fall 2025
Rescheduling Optimism In The US; Warming Up To Fundamentals in Canada
The ATB survey, conducted from September 8 through 15, 2025, gathered responses from 26 institutional investors. Key findings:
Rescheduling Optimism
US cannabis sentiment has materially improved, with 53.8% of respondents more bullish (vs. 11.5% more bearish), and 42.3% increasing net sector exposure (vs. 11.5% decreasing) compared to six months ago. Investors assign a 60% probability to rescheduling within the NTM (up from 27% in our prior survey), with 96.2% expecting it during Trump’s term (vs. 63.3% prior). Rescheduling dominates the sector narrative and is the key near-term catalyst to watch, overshadowing others like SAFE Banking or Pennsylvania legalization, which carry lower probabilities.
Upside Potential
77.3% of investors project the MSOS ETF to exceed $10 upon rescheduling (~120% upside from current levels), implying rescheduling is not priced in. Additionally, 60.9% see a fair 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple for Tier 1s at 10x or higher in a rescheduling scenario, compared to the current multiple of 5.2x.
Warming Up To Canada
Canadian cannabis sentiment is modestly improving, with 33.3% of investors more bullish and 25% increasing net exposure vs. six months ago. However, 61.9% report unchanged sentiment, and 70% maintained steady exposure, indicating the sector remains largely overlooked. Investors cite improving fundamentals as the top factor for increasing capital allocation to Canadian cannabis, followed by US market entry upon regulatory changes. (4) Consensus Picks. In the US, Green Thumb is the top overweight equity (57.1% of respondents), followed by Curaleaf (23.8%). Curaleaf and Cannabist (both 19.0%) are the most cited underweights. In Canada, Village Farms (36.4%) and High Tide (27.3%) lead as the most cited overweights, while Canopy Growth (75.0%) is the consensus underweight.
Other US Cannabis Tidbits
- Up-listings to US exchanges and rescheduling tied as the top factors that would increase investors’ willingness to allocate more capital to MSOs, each cited as #1 by 42.3% of investors. Rescheduling ranked #2 by 46.2%, and IRS non-pursuit of 280E tax liabilities gained traction as #2 for 19.2%, signaling growing concern over tax liability overhang.
- Investors generally think debt repayment should be the top capital allocation priority for MSOs, followed by organic growth initiatives. Share repurchases remain the least preferred option.
- Investors are mostly concerned about price/margin compression, potential IRS pursuit of tax liabilities, looming debt maturities, and rescheduling risks.
- Views on investments into hemp-derived THC remain mixed but trending towards positive, with 42.3% of respondents viewing it favorably (up from 23.3% in our Spring 2025 Survey), and 34.6% of respondents being undecided or having no opinion.
Other Canadian Cannabis Tidbits
- Improved fundamentals are the top factor that would drive increased capital allocation to Canadian cannabis, cited as #1 by 50.0% of investors (up from 31.3% in Spring 2025). US regulatory changes allowing Canadian companies to enter the US market dropped as a priority, ranked #1 by 25.0% (down from 37.5%).
- Investors are most concerned about competitive pressures in Canadian and international markets, followed by equity dilution. Bankruptcy and debt maturities are seen as lower risks.