FICC COMMENTARY
Timely market updates and specialized insights
Monthly Carbon Commentary
June Monthly Carbon Update
TIER 2025 compliance shows a ~500k credit surplus, with light trading near $30. Lower demand from small emitters and persistent supply overhang will keep near-term credit prices deeply discounted.
Musings from the Rates Desk
August 7, 2026 Update
Canada’s strong jobs report pushed 2 year GoC yields up 4.3 bps, while weak U.S. data dropped 2 year USTs 9.6 bps on rate cut bets.
July 31, 2026 Update
The Fed held rates despite speculation of a hike, leaving the curve shifting over fears that inflation remains hard to tackle.
June 5, 2026 Update
Stronger data and solid jobs growth drove U.S. and Canadian yields higher, cementing market expectations for rate hikes in both countries by late 2026.
Energy Commentary from the Commodities Desk
September 10, 2026 Update
WTI above $100 amid escalating Middle East tensions; NYMEX NG extends loss ahead of EIA.
September 9, 2026 Update
WTI above $95 amid continued geopolitical tensions; NYMEX NG slips despite warmer outlook.
September 8, 2026 Update
WTI above $93 amid escalating geopolitical tensions; NYMEX NG falls on warm weather outlook.
September 4, 2026 Update
WTI edges lower ahead of Ukraine-US talks and OPEC+ weekend; NYMEX NG rallies on extended heat.
September 3, 2026 Update
WTI above $91 as Middle East tensions remain tight; NYMEX NG edges higher ahead of EIA.
September 2, 2026 Update
WTI dips from three-month highs; NYMEX NG falls on lower US LNG exports.
Foreign Exchange Updates
September 10, 2026 Update
USD reprices higher thanks to upward PPI revisions.
September 9, 2026 Update
USD trades sideways ahead of key U.S. PPI/CPI data.
September 8, 2026 Update
USDCAD slides as market awaits U.S. retaliation.
September 4, 2026 Update
Loonie weaker after poor August employment report.
September 3, 2026 Update
USD slides as Waller looks through inflation levels.
September 2, 2026 Update
Bank of Canada in focus as Iran strikes prompt flight to safety.
View Historic FICC Commentary
August 2026
- 2026-08-31 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Momentum Slows After Hawkish Speech from Warsh...
- 2026-08-31 - Energy Commentary: WTI above $86 on renewed US-Iran strikes; NYMEX NG swings betw...
- 2026-08-28 - FX Commentary: USD Slowly Retraces Losses Ahead of Jackson Hole Keynote from Wars...
- 2026-08-27 - FX Commentary: Loonie Rises After US Clarifies Negotiating Position on Some Items...
- 2026-08-27 - Energy Commentary: WTI flips to gains on Hormuz incident; NYMEX NG gains on stron...
- 2026-08-26 - FX Commentary: Stronger US Data Boosts Big Dollar...
- 2026-08-26 - Energy Commentary: WTI hits two-week low following Iran-Oman statement; NYMEX NG ...
- 2026-08-25 - FX Commentary: Loonie Underperforms as Market Awaits Trade Fallout...
- 2026-08-25 - Energy Commentary: WTI below $83 post "Economic D-Day" details; NYMEX NG edges lo...
- 2026-08-24 - FX Commentary: Trade Trade Collapse Puts Loonie on Defensive...
- 2026-08-24 - Energy Commentary: WTI lowers ahead of Economic D-Day details; NYMEX NG edges up ...
- 2026-08-21 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Trades Lowest Level Since May on Weaker USD...
- 2026-08-21 - Energy Commentary: WTI retreats on Iran's comments to end the war; NYMEX NG drops...
- 2026-08-20 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Slides Toward 1.3750 Support...
- 2026-08-20 - Energy Commentary: WTI above $87 as Trump threatens Iran with "Economic D-Day"; N...
- 2026-08-19 - FX Commentary: USD Tumbles After the Quarterly Refunding Announcement...
- 2026-08-19 - Energy Commentary: WTI above $85 as US-Iran talks stall; NYMEX NG continues to ri...
- 2026-08-18 - FX Commentary: CAD Trades Sideways Ahead of Tariff Deadline...
- 2026-08-18 - Energy Commentary: WTI rallies on rising geopolitical tensions; NYMEX NG edges hi...
- 2026-08-17 - Energy Commentary: WTI gains as US-Iran MOU expires with no deal; NYMEX NG edges ...
- 2026-08-14 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Slides Lower on Broad USD Weakness...
- 2026-08-14 - Energy Commentary: WTI swings between small gains and losses; NYMEX NG higher des...
- 2026-08-13 - FX Commentary: USD Steady After Cooler PPI Dampens Fed Hike Expectation...
- 2026-08-13 - Energy Commentary: WTI reverses lower on optimism for Hormuz deal; NYMEX NG highe...
- 2026-08-12 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Slides Further on Weaker US Inflation Data...
- 2026-08-12 - Energy Commentary: WTI reverses lower on optimism for Hormuz deal; NYMEX NG highe...
- 2026-08-11 - Energy Commentary: WTI lower after comments from Pakistan; NYMEX NG trades sidewa...
- 2026-08-10 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Trades Sideways Ahead of US CPI...
- 2026-08-10 - Energy Commentary: WTI rallies as Iran-Oman talks stall; NYMEX NG higher on warme...
- 2026-08-07 - FX Commentary: Loonie Outperforms Thanks to Strong Canadian Employment Data...
- 2026-08-07 - Energy Commentary: WTI holds steady on a quiet news day; NG edges higher despite ...
- 2026-08-06 - FX Commentary: USD Pares Loses Ahead of Jobs Data...
- 2026-08-06 - Energy Commentary: WTI recovers as Iran denies deal to reopen Strait; NG edges lo...
- 2026-08-05 - FX Commentary: USDCAD Trades Sideways Ahead of Friday's Employment Data...
- 2026-08-05 - Energy Commentary: WTI swings on Hormuz Deal hopes; NG holds steady...
- 2026-08-04 - FX Commentary: CAD Weakens as Oil Tumbles...
- 2026-08-04 - Energy Commentary: WTI extends loss amid potential Strait of Hormuz deal; NG edge...
- 2026-08-03 - Energy Commentary: WTI plummets on planned US-Iran talks; NG holds steady...