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Weathering the Storm: Alberta's economy in 2024
ATB Financial Economic Outlook
By ATB Financial 20 March 2024 2 min read
Edmonton—Despite facing inflation and interest rate headwinds, Alberta's economy continues to forge ahead and remain a growth leader in Canada. This resiliency is the result of a surge in population, energy sector activity, and growth in emerging sectors.
In ATB Financial’s latest economic outlook, Alberta's economic growth is expected to outpace the national average. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent this year, a slight moderation from the estimated 2.5 per cent growth rate of 2023. The province is poised for an uptick of 2.7 per cent in 2025.
The forecast delves into several key themes shaping Alberta's economic landscape:
Not in the clear
The inflation threat has mostly receded, with rate cuts expected around mid-year. Higher borrowing costs are intensifying financial strains, leading to increased insolvencies and tempering both consumer spending and business investment.
Tailwinds
In 2024, significant improvements in oil exports are expected as TransMountain Expansion comes online. Housing construction, gaining momentum from late 2023, will surge further this year due to soaring demand fueled by strong population growth. Moreover, growth is expected in a number of burgeoning sectors, such as hydrogen, biofuels, petrochemicals, emissions reduction, technology, aviation, and tourism.
Foggy conditions
Amidst heightened uncertainty, events like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, China's unsteady economy, and upcoming elections in the U.S. and other countries contribute to an unpredictable global landscape. While inflation has decreased, it is not yet back to target and interest rate cuts could be delayed.
"While Alberta's economy hasn’t been unscathed by the inflation battle, it has performed relatively well. Risks are elevated, but we see significant momentum this year and heading into 2025,” said ATB Financial's Chief Economist, Mark Parsons. “Improved market access for energy and a broader economic base bode well for Alberta’s near-term growth.”
About ATB Financial
With $62.0 billion in assets, ATB Financial is a leading financial institution that started in Alberta with the focus of putting people first. Our success comes from our more than 5,000 team members who love to deliver exceptional experiences to over 820,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB provides expert advice, services and products through our many branches and agencies, our 24-hour Client Care Centre, four entrepreneur centres and our digital banking options. ATB is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond.
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ATB Financial’s Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.