The job vacancy rate* helps us gauge whether the demand for workers is heating up or cooling down. A rising rate points to labour market tightness and increased demand for workers (or, as in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, a scarcity of available labour) and vice versa for a falling rate.

The latest data show that, despite some month-over-month fluctuations, the rate has fallen from a peak of 5.2% in April 2022 to 3.2% as of June 2024.**

The vacancy rate is still a little higher than in the lead up to the pandemic, but the gap has narrowed to less than a percentage point.

There were an estimated 69,830 unfilled positions in Alberta in June—down from the peak of 107,895 in April 2022.

At the national level, the job vacancy rate has also been on a downward trend from the highs seen during the pandemic. As of June, the national rate was 3.1% or 554,005 unfilled positions.

However, unlike in Alberta, the national rate has returned to where it was before the pandemic.

Ontario posted the lowest vacancy rate of any province in June at 2.8% and Manitoba the highest at 3.9%.

After spending nearly 10 years below the national average while its labour market wrestled with the 2015-16 recession, crude oil market access issues and the pandemic, Alberta’s job vacancy rate has been above the national rate in 8 of the last 12 months. This points to relatively stronger labour demand in the province compared to Canada as a whole.

At the same time, the downward trend in the vacancy rate combined with an uptick in the unemployment rate over the last year points to a softer labour market overall. More jobs are being filled and the acute labour shortages following the pandemic have eased, though there are some pockets (like construction) where vacancies remain elevated. For the Bank of Canada, we believe a cooling of the labour market will eventually translate into lower wage pressures, and is another indicator in favour of a rate cut in September. 

*The job vacancy rate is the number of job vacancies expressed as a percentage of labour demand; that is, all occupied and vacant jobs.

**All data in today's Twenty-Four have been adjusted for typical seasonal variation.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The first Paralympic Games was held in Rome in 1960.

Today’s trivia question: When was the first Winter Games in Paralympics held?